Quick nat gas thoughts

I think I buy the argument from the nat gas report today: that with record storage gas is less likely to spike. The market assuredly knows this but another key part of the thesis is that the other side of this bet is forced. Utilities have to hedge the winter in order to ensure that gas can get delivered when demand is highest. I’m sure this is a known trade for people super into energy, but it is cool to me that I could discover and get some more insight into it via an agent I built.

Anyways, I like the quality of this agent for now after experimenting a bit with the new builder agent prompt. So I plan to roll out more agents and follow more markets in the near future. I look forward to learning what I am missing and where I’m going wrong so I can further improve these agents and my judgements, but also I always hope to be correct in my judgement.

One last interesting tidbit, on certain less liquid markets, I think you can place limit orders to get automated market makers to try and outbid you by a cent on Kalshi. This can happen if the spread is super wide and you place an order, you’ll see soon after an order come out 1 cent better than yours. I wonder if that can be exploited hahaha.